DESTROY THE MARKETS
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DTM compares today’s macro configuration with nearly five decades of history using growth, Core PCE inflation, unemployment, Fed Funds, and the 10Y–2Y Treasury spread.
Inflationary expansion
Goldilocks expansion
Goldilocks expansion
Goldilocks expansion
Goldilocks expansion
Each average uses only episodes with an available outcome at that horizon; the count is shown under each value. GDP is the cumulative change in the real GDP level from the analog quarter. Inflation, unemployment, Fed Funds, and the yield-curve figures are changes in percentage points.
Each factor is standardized across the historical sample, then DTM calculates the root-mean-square distance from today’s five-factor profile. The closest candidates are ranked by distance and translated into a 0–100 similarity score.
Selected analogs must be at least six quarters apart, preventing adjacent quarters from the same economic episode from filling the leaderboard.
Quarterly inflation, unemployment and Fed Funds averages require all three months. Historical Treasury spreads use dates shared by both maturities, with observations in each month of the quarter. This does not certify that every trading day is present.
The analog search currently uses today’s latest revised historical series. That makes it useful for descriptive comparison, but it is not a vintage-pure backtest. Historical As Of mode remains the correct tool when the question is what investors actually knew at the time.
Use Research Lab to test the individual relationships, or Historical As Of mode to reconstruct what was knowable during a selected analog period.